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You Have Stats – Use Them!
The movie and especially the book Moneyball details how the Oakland Athletics (A’s) helped pioneer the use of statistical data in making player decisions, from which players to acquire to who to play in the field on a daily basis. Their reason for doing it was primarily financial, i.e., they didn’t have the same kind of money to spend on well-known high-performers in order to compete so they had to look for the “hidden gems” – under-valued players who would deliver results while costing less.
The A’s had some very smart people (including a Harvard business grad) who wrote computer programs to help them parse through the mountains of data on every player in the league to find the ones who best fit the system they planned to use while still being within their price range. So you might think, well, ok for them but I don’t have those types of resources so what good does knowing all that do me?
In reality, though, most coaches today do have a lot of that type of information at their fingertips, at least about their own players. It’s contained within the GameChanger (or similar) apps the coaching staff or parents use to score and share game results with those who can’t be there.
On the home page for the team, the very last tab is labeled Stats. If you as a coach click on it you’ll see the cumulative statistics for all the games in hitting, pitching, and fielding.
Now, I understand that the stats aren’t always accurate since some people will score every ball that’s hit and gets someone on base a hit, even if an error was involved. But if you really want to take advantage of the value of stats, coaches, you can quickly train whoever is using on how to keep score properly so you can rely on the data that’s there.
The National Fastpitch Coaches Association also has online courses available for $9.99 that can teach this skill.
So how can having and using accurate statistical data help you as coaches win more games? Here’s an example, drawn from an actual team that apparently isn’t using the data at their disposal.
We will look at the hitting statistics for seven batters. We’ll just call them Player A, Player B, Player C, etc. We’ll look at batting average (BA), on-base percentage (OBP, which is how often they get on base through hits, walks, or hit by pitch), slugging percentage (SLG, the average number of bases a hitter gets each at-bat), and on base plus slugging (OPS, the sum of the on-base percentage plus slugging, which is a great measure of total productivity of the hitter).
Here are those stats for our seven players. The players are currently presented in a random order:
| Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| A | .222 | .333 | .278 | .611 |
| B | .167 | .250 | .167 | .417 |
| C | .462 | .562 | .538 | 1.101 |
| D | .286 | .400 | .429 | .829 |
| E | .278 | .381 | .333 | .714 |
| F | .200 | .294 | .200 | .494 |
| G | .250 | .429 | .312 | .741 |
Ok, based on those numbers and a general understanding of how to put a lineup together (which I covered a couple of posts ago), how would you structure your batting order? Take a few moments to write it on a piece of paper without looking below; I’ll wait.
Let’s see how what you did compares to the actual lineup that was used when I pulled these stats. If you’re using a traditional lineup, it would probably look something like this:
- Player D
- Player E
- Player C
- Player G
- Player F
- Player A
- Player B
If you’re using a more modern approach that says put your best bats at the top so they come to bat more often, the lineup would probably look like this:
- Player C
- Player D
- Player E
- Player G
- Player A
- Player F
- Player B
Ok, now here’s what the actual lineup is:
- Player D
- Player A
- Player E
- Player G
- Player B
- Player F
- Player C
Do you see a problem here? The player with by far the highest batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and on base + slugging (Player C) is hitting seventh, where she likely will get one at-bat per game, or two at most if the players ahead of her hit above their averages. In the meantime, Player B whose stats can only be called anemic at-best is hitting in the five slot, and Player A whose hitting line isn’t a whole lot better is in the two slot.
Is it any wonder that this team is struggling to score runs, much less win games?
Why would the lineup be structured this way? I can only guess, but that guess is the coach is relying on his “gut” or long-solidified impressions of who his top hitters are rather than taking the time to look at which players are actually producing statistically, game after game.
(It could also just be plain old playing favorites, but hopefully that’s not the case.)
If you want to win games you can’t and shouldn’t rely on your “gut” anymore. It’s like the the old scout thinking mentioned in Moneyball that so-and-so “looks like a ballplayer.”
That type of thinking is a dead end, whether you’re looking at the pro, collegiate, or youth level. You need instead to look at what is actually happening on the field, in the game, to determine which lineup is going to produce the most runs, which is a major key to winning ballgames.
The same is true for pitching and fielding too. You may think Pitcher A is your Ace, but if you look at the cold, hard stats you may find that Pitcher B does a better job of getting outs without giving up runs.
You may think Fielder A is your best bet at shortstop, but the stats could tell you Fielder B makes fewer errors while contributing to more “caught stealing” outs on throws from the same catcher.
All this information is there for you to use. All you have to do is click on it now and then to look at it.
Your eyes and your guts can lie. Statistics, if they’re properly kept, don’t.
Use the data you have to make better decisions and you’re likely to find you win more games. Or at least can justify your decisions should anyone ask, which in this day and age is a nice thing to have in your back pocket.
Statistics photo by Burak The Weekender on Pexels.com
The Art of Pitch Calling
Whenever a group of fastpitch softball fanatics gets together to talk about pitching, they (we) often talk about the three S’s – speed, spin, spot. You need a healthy dose of all three to be successful, especially at the higher levels.
Within that, however, there is one significant caveat.
Success with speed and spin is almost entirely pitcher-driven. In other words, when you get into a game the pitcher takes whatever skill she has acquired in these areas and applies it to the best of her ability.
Spot, however, is a little different, because often the pitcher doesn’t really have a choice in which spot she is throwing to. She may want to (or prefer to) throw high and inside in a particular situation, for example, but if whoever is calling the pitches wants it low and out that’s where she’s expected to throw it.
That’s what makes pitching calling such an art. No matter how great the pitcher is at hitting her spots, that alone isn’t enough. The pitch caller also has to be smart enough or experienced enough to call the right pitch in each situation or all that spot-hitting ability is essentially neutralized. Or even detrimental.
So how do you go about calling pitches? That really depends on the level of play and the ability of the pitch caller to determine what will work based on all the available information.
For example, in the P5 conferences, and I’m assuming many other collegiate programs, the team has a wealth of data on each hitter and what her tendencies are. Especially for long-term players. There’s a lot of data science in it.
They know what pitches and locations a hitter strikes out on the most and what she pummels over the fence on a regular basis. They know if she’s susceptible to certain locations based on past performance and they know which pitcher threw that particular pitch.
After all, if a hitter has trouble on the inside against a pitcher who throws 70 mph, it doesn’t mean she’ll always have trouble in that location. The more varying the data is, and the more of it you have, the better chance you have of making a good decision.
That, incidentally, is why some freshmen or newly elevated-to-starter-status players will start out hot and then cool as the season wears on. At first there isn’t much reliable data about them, but eventually it starts to accumulate.
But what if you don’t have the luxury of well-populated spray charts and other data? That’s where it becomes more of an art form.
There are some charts out there (like this one) that offer some guidance based on things you can observe. Most of them are based on common sense, such as if a hitter is crowding the plate try to jam her inside with your fastest pitch.
Again, however, it’s not quite that formulaic. It could be that this particular hitter is crowding the plate because she is awesome at hitting inside pitches and not so good at hitting outside pitches.
You try to smoke her inside and she’s going to turn on the ball and launch a very long, dispiriting home run.
That’s why it’s important to develop a feel for pitch calling rather than simply relying on charts or conventional wisdom or other things from the past. You need to be able to look at a hitter and see what she’s bringing to the plate that day.
Another important skill is learning how to set the hitter up for the outcome you want. For example, if she awkwardly swings at a low outside pitch for strike one, she just showed you she’s probably not comfortable out there.
Try another one a little further off the plate. If that induces strike two, see if you can get her to swing at a curveball off the plate.
If she doesn’t bite, you can try coming inside, then going back outside again if necessary. The idea is to make sure she never gets totally comfortable with what she’s seeing.
Another good strategy is if the hitter fouls a ball straight back on a speed pitch (fastball or drop ball), come back at her with a changeup. If you make her look bad with that she’ll probably figure you’re coming in for the kill with a speed pitch again so maybe throw her another change that falls off as it reaches the plate.
The possibilities are endless. The key is to see where she looks least comfortable and use that information to keep her off-balance and uncertain.
One other key piece of information when you’re calling pitches is to never throw more strikes than you have to. What does that mean?
When you get two strikes on a hitter it’s tempting to try to just put her away right then and there by overpowering her, especially at the younger ages. But unless the other team’s hitters are completely over-matched by your pitcher, that’s a bad idea.
They’ve already had an up-close and personal look at two pitches. If the hitter is any good at all she is starting to figure out your pitcher a little more.
Instead, throw a ball that looks like a strike. It could be a drop or curve or rise that starts in the zone but gets out of it by the time it reaches the plate.
It could be a fastball that’s a ball’s width too high or too wide to be hit effectively. It could be a dying quail of a changeup that starts out thigh-high and then hits the plate or the dirt in front of it.
Just don’t give them anything too good to hit. Work the edges, throw off the hitter’s rhythm, or do something else to make sure she can’t take her best swing at the ball and you’re likely to achieve much better results.
While there is science to pitch calling, at the end of the day it’s still more of an art. And like any art, some people have a knack for it and others don’t.
If you find you’re a don’t-have, find someone else on the team who does have it – an assistant coach, a catcher, even another pitcher – and let them do it. If there are no other options talk to people you know who are good at it to learn their thought processes as to why they call the pitches they do.
That way when you call a spot you’ll not only expect your pitcher to hit it. You’ll be confident it’s a spot worth hitting.
10 Things to Consider When Looking for a New Team
Hard to believe since we have barely been playing summer ball again, but the 2020 season is nearly over. Some of the alphabet organizations are already holding Nationals (or “Nationals”), and in a couple of weeks this year will be in the books.
For some, maybe many, this is also the time of year when players and their families start thinking about where they want to play in 2021. There can be many reasons for changing teams.
Some are looking for a more challenging environment. Some are hoping to increase their playing time, either overall or at a specific position. Some want more games while others want fewer. (I’m sure no one was happy with that this season.) Some want to play with their friends, and some don’t like their current coaches and want to move on.
Whatever the driver, the tryout season (which follows immediately on the heels of the current season, unfortunately) will no doubt find a lot of folks seeking greener pastures.
If you’re in that category, be sure you remember these wise Latin words: caveat emptor, which essentially translates to “let the buyer beware.” Because what may look like a good opportunity at first glance may not look so good once you’re in the middle of it.
There are no guarantees in this process. But I do have some tips, based on my many years of coaching, that could help guide you to a better decision.
This isn’t a post on how to have a great tryout by the way. You can find those tips here. This is about considerations when selecting a new team.
- Talk to parents or players already on teams you’re considering. Preferably you will do this before you even get to tryouts. You probably know some of the teams you might be considering. It’s likely you play against them regularly. If you’re at a tournament this weekend, introduce yourself and talk to parents whose kids are on that team. They’ll help you get a feel for how it’s run, what the coaches are like, and whether all the positions are set already or you/your daughter will have an opportunity to see the field (or a particular position) regularly.
- Silently listen to those same parents. This is a bit sneakier, but there’s nothing like sideline chatter to give you a feel for what people really think of a team. Go stand by one or more groups of parents and casually listen to their comments and discussions. You’ll get an unvarnished idea of how happy or unhappy they are overall and whether the team atmosphere will be a pleasant or trying one. You could end up saving yourself a lot of time and heartache in the long run.
- Look downmarket for opportunities. Yes it sure is nice to be on a team that’s winning the big trophies all the time. But for many the luster fades when you realize you/your daughter was more of a glorified spectator than active participant in all those wins. Sometimes your best opportunity to develop into an A-level player is to play with a B-level team with a year so you can gain the experience you need. For example, pitchers need to be in the circle if they’re going to develop. If you’re on a team with two or three Ace pitchers, and you’re not at that level yet, you’re not going to get the ball much. That’s just life. Yes, you could keep working on your game to try to beat them out, but if the die is already cast you may not get a chance to show what you can do even if you do pass them by. You would be better-served by being a #1 or #2 on a lower-level team, and gaining lots of game experience than pitching two token innings of pool play and then sitting the bench or playing a field position the rest of the time. If you’re going to be successful you have to want and get the ball on a regular basis. The same is true for other positions, but it particularly applies to pitchers.
- If your are moving up, try not to walk in #1. If you’re used to being the best player on your team and you are looking for new challenges, you want to go somewhere where you start out behind some of the other players. In our pitching example, you want to go in as #2 or #3. As a hitter you want to start out in the lower half of the lineup rather than being anointed to the 3-slot or cleanup. Being viewed as being behind someone else should fire up your competitive juices and cause you to work that much harder. There is nothing more satisfying than be brought in as a backup and then taking over the top spot.
- Prioritize what’s important to you. For some people money and distance are no object. They are most interested in a level of play, or an opportunity to play, or whatever else is important to them. For others it may be convenience, time/distance to practice, availability of other parents to transport you/your daughter to practice or games or a host of other parameters. Before you waste your time or the coaching staff’s time at a tryout, be sure you know what’s acceptable to you and what is not. Then select potential teams accordingly. If you want time to work in a family vacation in late June, playing on a team that goes to PGF qualifiers all summer is probably not for you. If you have transportation challenges, joining a team that is an hour away and practices three nights a week probably won’t work out for anyone. Decide what’s important and choose accordingly.
- Seek like-minded players. Your/your daughter’s best experience will be on a team where players have comparable skill levels and goals. That doesn’t mean they all have to be BFFs, but they should at least all be pulling in the same direction. If you see bullying or prima donna behavior, especially from a coach’s kid, keep in mind that this is likely the best they’re going to act. It’s not going to get better over time. On the other hand if you/your daughter looks like a good fit skill- and personality-wise, it will probably be the experience you’re looking for.
- Watch how the coaches coach. Again, theoretically everyone is showing their best selves at a tryout. Players are trying to sell themselves, but so are coaches. If they’re yelling and screaming during tryouts, that’s probably going to carry over to practice and games. If you like that sort of thing – the old “command and control” style of coaching – have at it. If that’s not what you’re looking for keeping looking. One thing I will say is during tryouts I would often make a suggestion on how to approach a skill with a player, not just to help her do better but to see how coachable she seemed. If I got back attitude she was cut no matter how skilled. You should audition coaches the same way. Ask them some meaningful questions and see how they answer. Not just what they say but how they say it. You’ll learn a lot in a few minutes.
- Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see. Ok I stole that from Edgar Allen Poe by way of Bruce Springsteen, but it’s still good advice. When you’re a prospect you’re likely to hear all kinds of promises. Coaches have rosters to fill, and they want to fill them as quickly as possible – especially if there is a lot of competition for players in an area. But just because you or your daughter have been told she’ll play shortstop during tryouts doesn’t mean it will actually happen once games roll around. This is where the research you did earlier (see tips #1 and #2) will pay off. Is the coach a man of his/her word? If not, don’t get sucked in by tissue paper promises. It may still happen but it’s not a given.
- Don’t rush the decision. Unless you/your daughter is trying out for her dream team, and you know there is an opening at her position, resist the pressure to decide on the spot whether to accept a particular team’s offer. I’m not sure when this became a thing, but it seems like a lot of programs have gone this way. Especially programs that like to pretend they’re high-level when they’re really more mid-level. This is a decision you will either have to live with for a year or that will create a very uncomfortable situation down the road if you decide you have to leave before the season ends. If that team really wants you, it will wait. If the coach is just trying to fill roster spots so he/she doesn’t have to think about tryouts anymore, you probably don’t want to be there anyway.
- Trust your gut. This one is simple. If something doesn’t feel right about the tryouts you’re probably right. Don’t try to convince yourself things will get better later because they probably won’t. Either finish it out and don’t look back, or just excuse yourself and leave. Nothing good will come from prolonging a bad experience.
The whole tryout process can be gut-wrenching for everyone, but the more effort you put into looking at all the factors the better of a decision you’ll be able to make. The good news, however, is that even if you choose poorly, you’re not getting married.
It’s a year’s commitment at most. Then you get to do it all over again.
Good luck, and go get ’em!
Life in the Fastpitch Lane 