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Hitters, Math, and Being Prepared
Since a lot of the U.S. has either gone back to school or is about to, I thought it would be a good time to talk about math. Specifically, the math of hitting in a game and why letting a good pitch go by early may not be such a good idea.
At its most basic, hitters are given a maximum of 5 pitches that count in each at bat. (Yes, you can get more if you’re fouling off pitches, but for the most part the goal is to hit the ball fair rather than foul it off so let’s stick with that.)
If you just stand there and get to a 3-2 count, that means 3 of the pitches were judged not good pitches to hit by the umpire and 2 were determined to be good. Again, you can debate umpire strike zones all day but for this argument we’ll assume the blue has a good zone.
So that means you had 2 out of 5 opportunities to get a good hit by swinging at a good pitch. Put another way, less than half the pitches were good ones.
Now let’s bring in those foul balls. Maybe they were good pitches you missed, or maybe they actually weren’t good pitches but they were close enough that you (rightfully) felt compelled to swig.
If you had 5 foul balls and 3 of them were borderline. you now had a total of 10 pitches, of which 4 were good and 6 were not. You’re still at the same 40% mark as before.
On the other hand, if one more of those pitches was borderline, you now had 3 good and 7 not-so-good pitches and your percentage of good pitches to hit dropped from 40% to 30%.
Ah, but we’re not done yet.
It’s pretty rare for hitters to hit pitches in all zones equally well. Most have zones where they hit better – say up and in and up and out – and zones where they don’t hit the ball well at all, even though they are legitimate strikes.
So now, of those 3 or 4 good pitches we outlined earlier, maybe only one was in a zone you liked. Which means out of the 10 pitches in that at bat, you only got 1 truly good pitch to hit.
No wonder hitting is so difficult.
Now stretch that across an entire game. If you get 3 at bats, you may only have gotten 3-6 pitches out of 30 that were where you can be confident you could hit the ball hard somewhere.
Pretty low odds, wouldn’t you say? Add in that a hard-hit ball could still be fielded for an out by a fielder and it is amazing anyone has a decent batting average.
The point of all of this is, as a hitter, there is a pretty good chance you’re only going to see 1 truly good pitch per at bat, so you’d better be ready when it comes.
Keep in mind the pitcher’s goal is to not throw you ANY good pitches to hit. At the college level and even high school or higher travel ball levels the opposing team may have a book on your that shows where you like the ball and where you don’t. Guess where they’re going to try to throw it?
At the younger levels, many of the pitchers don’t have full command of their pitches yet so their locations may be a little to a lot erratic. The forgiving term for that is “effectively wild,” i.e., they can’t hit a location reliably, but even if they’re off they’re close enough to the strike zone that it works for them anyway.
We’ve all known pitches like that.
Whatever the case with the pitcher, again, when she does throw a pitch you can hit well you have to be ready to hit it. For me, that means you have to assume EVERY pitch is going to be that pitch, load up and start your swing as if that’s true, and then hold up if you see it’s not.
After all, you don’t want to waste the very few really good pitches you’re going to see by realizing too late that you should be swinging. If you’re only going to see 2 or 3 hittable pitches in a game, you need to make the most of them when they come.
That includes the first pitch you see, by the way. I know some hitters don’t like swinging at the first pitch, and some coaches preach letting the first pitch go by so you can get a look at how the pitcher is throwing. I’m not a fan of either approach.
Keep in mind pitchers are coached to get ahead in the count. Many teams place a lot of emphasis on first pitch strikes and track that stat religiously.
It would be a shame to let the best pitch you’re going to see in that at bat go by automatically just because, don’t you think? At the very least, on that first pitch you should be looking for a particular pitch and your best location to hit, and if you see it go ahead and swing with enthusiasm.
It will take a lot of pressure off of you and keep you from having to go into survival mode later in that at bat. If your coach insists on no swinging at the first pitch you have to abide by that, of course, but hopefully he/she can be convinced to at least green light a pitch that’s in your happy place.
The math is the math. Hitters usually don’t get a lot of opportunities to hit good pitches, so you need to be ready when they do come along.
Take advantage of good pitches when they come and you can make the math work for you.
Teacher photo by Andrea Piacquadio on Pexels.com
Preparing for the Inevitble Storms
On this week’s episode of the From the Coach’s Mouth podcast, Jay Bolden and I spoke with Shawnee Harle, 2X Olympian with the Canadian Basketball National Team and now a Mental Toughness Coach with her own business called Winning Matters. While Shawnee had a lot of great insights into the mental game, there was one concept in particular that has been on my mind today: preparing for the storm.
Shawnee said that what most athletes and coaches miss is that there is always a storm coming – kind of like Florida during hurricane season. It’s not a question of if, but rather than of when.
Through experience, most people in Florida have learned that when a hurricane is on its way it’s best to put up the plywood over the windows, lock down anything that can be easily lifted (such as patio furniture), and lay in supplies such as food, water, toilet paper, and bandages so they’re ready for when the storm hits.
If it’s not that bad that’s ok – all they lost was a little time and a little storage space for supplies they didn’t need after all (but can use later). If it is bad, however, they have what they need to get through it until the storm passes and things get back to normal.
Unfortunately, many coaches and athletes like to pretend that the storm isn’t going to hit them. “I’ve put in the work,” they say, or “the negatives won’t hit me if I just stay positive.” But that’s a fool’s position.
According to Shawnee, the storm hits everyone sooner or later. Pitchers have a rough outing or two, or suddenly lose their best pitch for no apparent reason. Hitters go into slumps out of nowhere.
Catchers suddenly can’t throw baserunners out or start having pitches they’d normally catch glance off their gloves. Fielders start making fielding errors or sailing balls high instead of throwing to the base.
No one knows why the softball gods suddenly become angry and throw their wrath at a particular player. They just do, and it happens to everyone.
So knowing that, the question is what are you doing to prepare yourself (or your players)? Have you thought about how you’re going to deal with it and get back on track or are you going to allow yourself to get caught by surprise and then try to ride it out?
Now, some coaches will take the “Suck it up buttercup” approach. They see a problem and think if they tell players to “toughen up” or to “get your head in the game” they will solve the problem.
In reality, they will most likely make it worse.
The better approach is to heed the old saying “In times of peace, prepare for war” and start getting your mental game toolkit together before you need it. Just like smart Floridians gather up their supplies ahead of the hurricane rather than during the middle of it.
There are plenty of resources out there that can help you learn how to prepare for the coming storm. A mental toughness coach such as Shawnee is certainly a good one, especially if you’re playing on a bigger stage where the pressure is extreme.
But there are plenty of self-help options out there. The book Heads-Up Baseball: Playing the Game One Pitch at a Time is a great starting point in my opinion. It’s easy to follow, with great exercises that help you learn to control yourself and understand what else you can or cannot control.
There are many other books, videos, and training tools as well, all designed to address the storms that are inevitable in sports as well as in life.
The key, though, is not to wait until you’re facing the storm but to get out ahead of it. You wouldn’t suddenly try to learn how to hit or pitch or perform any other skill in the middle of a season.
You shouldn’t wait until you’re in the middle of a crisis to try to develop the skills you need to get out of one either.
If you polled 1,000 coaches and athletes and asked them how important the mental game is to success, I’d bet the overwhelming majority, like 90%+, would say “very important.” Ask that same 1,000 how much time they spend on it, though, and you’d probably get an answer of 5% of their time or less.
Face the facts: the storm is coming. It might not be today, or even tomorrow, but sooner or later it will hit. Start preparing for it now and you’ll find you’ll get through it faster and stronger.
Life in the Fastpitch Lane 