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The Odds Are Stacked Against You in Fastpitch Hitting
A few days ago I was doing a hitting lesson with one of my students, a young lady named Avery. We got to talking about why the success rate for hitting in fastpitch softball is generally so low.
That’s when she said something profound that her mom Abbey had told her that I hadn’t really thought about in that way: Hitting is 9 on 1.
I think most of us tend to think about the battle between the pitcher and the hitter, i.e., how the pitcher is trying to get the hitter to miss the ball or at least mis-hit if she does make contact so doesn’t go too far. But while the hitter is up at the plate standing alone, the pitcher has one other person in front of her and seven others behind her to help her get the out on that weak hit.
That’s a pretty unfair advantage, don’t you think? Picture a basketball game, or a soccer match, or hockey game, or pretty much any sport where scoring means getting the object at the center of the game into the other team’s goal.
You don’t have to be Mr. Vegas to figure out who is going to win that contest, no matter how skilled the player on the one side is.
Yet when the scoring opportunity comes up for a player in fastpitch softball (or slow pitch, or modified pitch, or baseball, etc.) she’s facing a whole phalanx of opponents whose only goal is to prevent her from achieving her goal. Seems pretty unfair, doesn’t it?
And that’s why the stats of a game, even if kept honestly (versus the person who scores every contact as a hit or anything close as an error, depending on whether his/her team is at bat or in the field), don’t always tell the whole story.
For example, a hitter can slam a screaming line drive directly at the face of the opposing shortstop, who throws her glove up in instinct to protect herself. If said screaming line drive goes into the glove and the shortstop’s palmar grasp reflex (yes that’s a real thing) causes her hand to contract around the ball, the hitter is out.
Never mind that she smoked the pitch that the pitcher mistakenly threw over the heart of the plate. One of the seven fielders happened to be in the way of the ball as it was on its way to being a double and turned that great contact into a drop of a few percentage points in her batting average.
Or what about the well-hit ball to the outfield that goes to the person the other team is trying to hide? She puts her glove up over head to make sure the ball doesn’t hit her, and instead it nestles softly in the web like a bird landing in its nest.
The hitter did nothing wrong, and the fielder, quite frankly, didn’t do anything intentionally right, but the fielder gets high fives while the hitter gets nothing except another ding against her batting average. And those are just the extreme examples.
During the course of the game most times there are seven fielders behind the pitcher, plus the pitcher herself, whose job it is to make sure the hitter doesn’t reach base. And then you have the catcher whose job it is to clean up anything around the plate. That’s a pretty stacked deck.
The only way the hitter can be absolutely assured of not being out after contact is to drive the pitch over the fence. And while the number of hitters doing so has increased dramatically over the last several years, those are still a low percentage of all contacts made.
So the next time you’re wondering why failing 7 out of 10 times at the plate makes someone an all-star, remember that the odds are stacked against the hitter from the beginning. And beating 9 on 1 odds is a pretty good reason to celebrate no matter how it happens.
Hitters, Math, and Being Prepared
Since a lot of the U.S. has either gone back to school or is about to, I thought it would be a good time to talk about math. Specifically, the math of hitting in a game and why letting a good pitch go by early may not be such a good idea.
At its most basic, hitters are given a maximum of 5 pitches that count in each at bat. (Yes, you can get more if you’re fouling off pitches, but for the most part the goal is to hit the ball fair rather than foul it off so let’s stick with that.)
If you just stand there and get to a 3-2 count, that means 3 of the pitches were judged not good pitches to hit by the umpire and 2 were determined to be good. Again, you can debate umpire strike zones all day but for this argument we’ll assume the blue has a good zone.
So that means you had 2 out of 5 opportunities to get a good hit by swinging at a good pitch. Put another way, less than half the pitches were good ones.
Now let’s bring in those foul balls. Maybe they were good pitches you missed, or maybe they actually weren’t good pitches but they were close enough that you (rightfully) felt compelled to swig.
If you had 5 foul balls and 3 of them were borderline. you now had a total of 10 pitches, of which 4 were good and 6 were not. You’re still at the same 40% mark as before.
On the other hand, if one more of those pitches was borderline, you now had 3 good and 7 not-so-good pitches and your percentage of good pitches to hit dropped from 40% to 30%.
Ah, but we’re not done yet.
It’s pretty rare for hitters to hit pitches in all zones equally well. Most have zones where they hit better – say up and in and up and out – and zones where they don’t hit the ball well at all, even though they are legitimate strikes.
So now, of those 3 or 4 good pitches we outlined earlier, maybe only one was in a zone you liked. Which means out of the 10 pitches in that at bat, you only got 1 truly good pitch to hit.
No wonder hitting is so difficult.
Now stretch that across an entire game. If you get 3 at bats, you may only have gotten 3-6 pitches out of 30 that were where you can be confident you could hit the ball hard somewhere.
Pretty low odds, wouldn’t you say? Add in that a hard-hit ball could still be fielded for an out by a fielder and it is amazing anyone has a decent batting average.
The point of all of this is, as a hitter, there is a pretty good chance you’re only going to see 1 truly good pitch per at bat, so you’d better be ready when it comes.
Keep in mind the pitcher’s goal is to not throw you ANY good pitches to hit. At the college level and even high school or higher travel ball levels the opposing team may have a book on your that shows where you like the ball and where you don’t. Guess where they’re going to try to throw it?
At the younger levels, many of the pitchers don’t have full command of their pitches yet so their locations may be a little to a lot erratic. The forgiving term for that is “effectively wild,” i.e., they can’t hit a location reliably, but even if they’re off they’re close enough to the strike zone that it works for them anyway.
We’ve all known pitches like that.
Whatever the case with the pitcher, again, when she does throw a pitch you can hit well you have to be ready to hit it. For me, that means you have to assume EVERY pitch is going to be that pitch, load up and start your swing as if that’s true, and then hold up if you see it’s not.
After all, you don’t want to waste the very few really good pitches you’re going to see by realizing too late that you should be swinging. If you’re only going to see 2 or 3 hittable pitches in a game, you need to make the most of them when they come.
That includes the first pitch you see, by the way. I know some hitters don’t like swinging at the first pitch, and some coaches preach letting the first pitch go by so you can get a look at how the pitcher is throwing. I’m not a fan of either approach.
Keep in mind pitchers are coached to get ahead in the count. Many teams place a lot of emphasis on first pitch strikes and track that stat religiously.
It would be a shame to let the best pitch you’re going to see in that at bat go by automatically just because, don’t you think? At the very least, on that first pitch you should be looking for a particular pitch and your best location to hit, and if you see it go ahead and swing with enthusiasm.
It will take a lot of pressure off of you and keep you from having to go into survival mode later in that at bat. If your coach insists on no swinging at the first pitch you have to abide by that, of course, but hopefully he/she can be convinced to at least green light a pitch that’s in your happy place.
The math is the math. Hitters usually don’t get a lot of opportunities to hit good pitches, so you need to be ready when they do come along.
Take advantage of good pitches when they come and you can make the math work for you.
Teacher photo by Andrea Piacquadio on Pexels.com
Life in the Fastpitch Lane 